The Economic Disaster of the Pandemic Response

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1 month ago

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In April 2020, the Census Bureau began the Household Pulse Survey to collect nearly real-time data on how families were faring during this unprecedented crisis. At the end of 2021, the Census Bureau had released data from 39 Pulse surveys on household well-being. CBPP and others used this data to assess hardship and the impact of relief measures.

With the end of bi-weekly Pulse data releases in October 2021, this tracker will no longer be updated. The Census Bureau will continue to release Household Pulse data on a monthly basis, and CBPP will continue to analyze and write about the effects of pandemic-relief measures, including the important role of government policies in reducing hardship and poverty.

The COVID-19 pandemic and resulting economic fallout caused significant hardship. In the early months of the crisis, tens of millions of people lost their jobs. While employment began to rebound within a few months, unemployment remained high throughout 2020. Improving employment and substantial relief measures helped reduce the very high levels of hardship seen in the summer of 2020. Nonetheless, considerable unmet need remained near the end of 2021, with 20 million households reporting having too little to eat in the past seven days and 10 million households behind on rent. In early 2022, some 3 million fewer people are employed than before the pandemic, though steady progress has been made, including in recent months.

Hardship in 2020 and 2021 would have been far worse without extraordinary steps taken by the federal government, states, and localities to respond to the pandemic and its economic fallout. Key hardship indicators showed strong improvement during early 2021, aided by job growth and government benefits. Hardship rates fell especially fast after the enactment of the American Rescue Plan Act on March 11, 2021, which included $1,400 payments for most Americans as well as other assistance to struggling households. (See Figure 1.) Food hardship among adults with children also fell after the federal government began issuing monthly payments of the expanded Child Tax Credit on July 15, 2021, along with improvements in food assistance.

Still, according to the Pulse survey, in October 2021, nearly 20 million adults lived in households that did not get enough to eat, 12 million adult renters were behind on rent, and some of the progress from late March appeared to have stalled as other troubles continued to affect the economy, including expiring unemployment benefits and supply chain problems that contributed to rising prices for many goods.

The impacts of the pandemic and the economic fallout have been widespread, but remain particularly prevalent among Black people, Latino people,^[1] and other people of color. These disproportionate impacts reflect harsh, long-standing inequities — often stemming from structural racism — in education, employment, housing, and health care that the crisis exacerbated. Households with children also continue to face especially high hardship rates. Considerable evidence suggests that reducing childhood hardship and poverty would yield improvements in education and health, higher productivity and earnings, less incarceration, and other lasting benefits to children and society.^[2]

High Hardship Rates Fell as Relief Arrived, Census Bureau Data Show

Millions of people were out of work and struggled to afford adequate food and pay the rent through 2021, data from the Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey and other sources, such as unemployment data from Census’ Current Population Survey and the Department of Labor, show. The impacts on those with children have been especially large (see Figures 3, 7, and 8). Still, hardship would have been far worse without the substantial relief measures taken to respond to the pandemic’s economic fallout.

For more on our methodology and data by state, see tables 1-4 at the end of this document.

Difficulty Getting Enough Food

The number of adults reporting that their households did not get enough to eat in the last seven days fell from a peak of nearly 30 million — 14 percent — in December 2020 to nearly 20 million — 9 percent — in the fall of 2021, according to Pulse data.^[3] (See Figure 2.) It fell sharply in March 2021 after the enactment of the December 2020 relief package and the mid-March enactment of the Rescue Plan, which included Economic Impact Payments of $1,400 for most individuals that month. Food hardship among adults with children improved significantly following the issuance of the first monthly Child Tax Credit payment (up to $300 monthly per child) on July 15, 2021.^[4]

Nearly 20 million adults — 9 percent of all adults in the country — reported that their household sometimes or often didn’t have enough to eat in the last seven days, according to Household Pulse Survey data collected September 29–October 11, 2021. When asked why, 82 percent said they “couldn’t afford to buy more food,” rather than (or in addition to) non-financial factors such as lack of transportation or safety concerns due to the pandemic.

Adults in households with children were likelier to report that the household didn’t get enough to eat: 12 percent, compared to 8 percent for households without children. (See Figure 3.) And 7 to 13 percent of adults with children reported that their children sometimes or often didn’t eat enough in the last seven days because they couldn’t afford it. Households typically first scale back on food for adults before cutting back on what children have to eat. (The 7-13 percent range reflects the different ways to measure food hardship in the Household Pulse Survey.)

Also, analysis of more detailed data from the Pulse Survey shows that between 5 and 9 million children lived in a household where children didn’t eat enough because the household couldn’t afford it. These figures are approximations; the Pulse Survey was designed to provide data on adult well-being, not precise counts of children.

Black and Latino adults were more than twice as likely as white adults to report that their household did not get enough to eat: 17 percent for Black adults and 16 percent for Latino adults, compared to 6 percent of white adults. Adults who identify as American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, Pacific Islander, or as multiracial, taken together,^[5] were more than three times as likely than white adults to report that their household did not get enough to eat, at 19 percent. (See Figure 4.)

Inability to Pay Rent or Mortgage

Millions were not caught up on their rent or mortgage payments in late 2021, the Household Pulse data also showed, but fewer than earlier in the year.

The December 2020 relief package and the Rescue Plan included over $46 billion in emergency rental assistance, designed to help people struggling to pay their rent and avoid eviction. Getting this emergency aid to people behind on rent took time, as many communities did not have adequate systems in place to distribute emergency rental assistance funds quickly. An August 2021 Supreme Court ruling ended the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s eviction moratorium, heightening the urgency to quickly distribute rental assistance to people in need. Once states and localities built the necessary infrastructure for people to apply for and receive emergency assistance, however, disbursement of funds accelerated in the fall of 2021. Over 3.2 million households received emergency aid from January to November 2021, according to Treasury Department data, with over half of these households receiving aid between September and November.^[6]

The number of adult renters reporting to the Census Bureau that their household was not caught up on rent fell from a peak of 15 million people — 1 in 5 adult renters — in January 2021 to more than 10 million people — about 1 in 7 adult renters — in the fall of 2021. (See Figure 5.) These households, particularly those who lost employment during the pandemic, may have accumulated debt from multiple months of back rent and late fees. Renters of color and families with children consistently reported higher rates of rent hardship throughout 2020 and 2021.

The Pulse data likely understated the number of people struggling to pay rent because many respondents skipped questions toward the end of the survey, including the housing questions. This “non-response” was higher among groups that are younger, have lower levels of education, and identify as Black or Latino — groups that are also more likely to struggle to afford rent, due to long-standing inequities often stemming from structural racism in education, employment, and housing.

Despite these measurement challenges, the slow rollout of emergency rental assistance and high pre-pandemic levels of housing hardship meant that millions still had difficulty paying rent late in 2021. An estimated 12 million adults living in rental housing — 16 percent of adult renters — were not caught up on rent, according to data collected September 29–October 11, 2021.^[7] Here, too, renters of color were more likely to report that their household was not caught up on rent: 28 percent of Black renters, 18 percent of Latino renters, and 20 percent of Asian renters said they were not caught up on rent, compared to 12 percent of white renters. The rate was 18 percent for American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, Pacific Islander, and multiracial adults taken together. (See Figure 6.)

In addition, 23 percent of renters who are parents or otherwise living with children reported that they were not caught up on rent, compared to 12 percent among adults not living with anyone under age 18. (See Figure 7.)

Children in renter households also faced high rates of food hardship. Over 1 in 5 children living in rental housing lived in a household that didn’t have enough to eat, according to detailed Pulse data. And over 1 in 3 children living in rental housing lived in a household that either wasn’t getting enough to eat or was not caught up on rent. (See Figure 8.)

While households that don’t rent their homes but have mortgage payments typically have higher incomes than renters, some of them also faced difficulties, especially if they lost their jobs or their incomes fell significantly. An estimated 7.5 million adults are in a household that was not caught up in its mortgage payment in the fall of 2021.^[8]

Difficulty Covering Household Expenses

The Household Pulse Survey provided data on the number of adults struggling to cover usual household expenses such as food, rent or mortgage, car payments, medical expenses, or student loans. Some 63 million adults — 29 percent of all adults in the country — reported it was somewhat or very difficult for their household to cover usual expenses in the past seven days, according to data collected September 29–October 11, 2021. That was down from a peak of 38 percent in mid-December 2020. (See Figure 9.)

In early 2021, the share of adults with trouble covering expenses stabilized as employment rose and aid from the December 2020 relief package — including renewed jobless benefits and another round of stimulus payments — reached households.

Following the March 2021 enactment of the Rescue Plan, and as the economy continued to add jobs, the share of adults who had trouble covering usual expenses fell sharply. The share ticked upward in May, likely due to the fading impact of the third round of stimulus payments, but it remained statistically unchanged in the subsequent months as other troubles continued to affect the economy, including expiring unemployment benefits, a resurging virus, and supply chain problems that contributed to rising prices for many goods.

Adults in households with children were more likely to report difficulty paying for usual expenses than those without children: 36 percent, compared to 24 percent. Financial hardship can have serious effects on children’s long-term health and education, research shows.^[9]

Black and Latino adults reported difficulty covering expenses at higher rates: 44 percent and 38 percent respectively, compared to 23 percent for white adults and 21 percent for Asian adults. (See Figure 10.) The rate was 42 percent for American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, Pacific Islander, and multiracial adults taken together.

Adults with a disability^[10] were more than twice as likely to report difficulty paying for usual expenses than adults without a disability: 54 percent compared to 23 percent, according to detailed Pulse data. In addition, LGBT^[11] adults were likelier than non-LGBT adults to live in households with difficulty covering expenses: 34 percent compared to 27 percent.

An estimated 38 percent of children lived in households that have trouble covering usual expenses, according to detailed data from the Pulse Survey. They included 57 percent of children in Black households, 46 percent of children in Latino households, 30 percent of children in white households, and 24 percent of children in Asian households. (The Pulse Survey asks the race of the adult respondent, not the children.)

Many Workers Remained Sidelined, With Job Losses Concentrated in Low-Paid Industries

The unemployment rate jumped in April 2020 to a level not seen since the 1930s — and stood at 4.9 percent in October 2021, compared with 3.5 percent in February 2020. That official unemployment rate, moreover, understated job losses.

There were still 4.2 million fewer jobs in October 2021 than in February 2020. The majority of jobs lost in the crisis have been in industries that pay low average wages, with the lowest-paying industries accounting for 30 percent of all jobs but 59 percent of the jobs lost from February 2020 to October 2021, according to Labor Department employment data. Jobs were down nearly twice as much in low-paying industries (4.5 percent) as in medium-wage industries (2.6 percent) and roughly 15 times as much as in high-wage industries (0.3 percent) during this period. (See Figure 11.)

Black and Latino workers have experienced a far slower jobs recovery than white workers — reflecting historical patterns rooted in structural racism.^[12] Some 7.9 percent of Black workers and 5.9 percent of Latino workers were unemployed in October 2021, compared to 4.0 percent of white workers. Workers who were born outside the U.S. (this includes individuals who are now U.S. citizens) have experienced larger job losses than U.S.-born workers.

Data from the Census Bureau’s basic monthly Current Population Survey released November 10, 2021, provided more detail on unemployed workers and their family members. Some 17.9 million people either met the official definition of unemployed (meaning they had actively looked for work in the last four weeks or were on temporary layoff) or lived with an unemployed family member in October. This figure included 4.4 million children.

The official definition of unemployed leaves out many workers deprived of pay amid the pandemic,^[13] including some 1.3 million workers in October 2021 who reported they did not look for work because of the pandemic, according to the Labor Department. The official definition also omitted some 200,000 workers who reported that they had a job but that they were absent from work without pay and lost pay in the last four weeks “because their employer closed or lost business due to the coronavirus pandemic,” according to our calculations.

When family members were considered, some 21.3 million people in October 2021, including 5.3 million children, lived in a family where at least one adult did not have paid work in the last week because of unemployment or the pandemic, we estimated.

During 2021, a large share of people getting jobless benefits only qualified because of the temporary eligibility expansions enacted in response to the pandemic. Permanent reforms are needed to fix an underlying system in which too many unemployed workers get inadequate benefits or no benefits at all.^[14]

State-by-State Food, Housing, and Employment Hardship Data

Data by state show that hardship was widespread in the fall of 2021. The following tables provide state-level data on:

the share of adults reporting that their household didn’t have enough to eat (Table 1);
the share of adults saying children in their household were not eating enough because they couldn’t afford enough (Table 1);
the share of adults not caught up on rent (Table 2);
the share of adults saying their household had difficulty paying for their usual expenses (Table 3); and
the three-month moving average unemployment rate and recent jobless claim data (Table 4).

For data from the Pulse Survey, we averaged data collected September 15-27, 2021 and September 29–October 11, 2021 to improve the accuracy of the state estimates.

Differences in Pulse hardship rates between states may reflect sampling error, so we suggest not drawing strong conclusions from modest differences between states. The data do show, however, that high levels of hardship remained widespread across the country.

Difficulty Getting Enough Food

The Pulse Survey asks adult respondents if their household did not have enough to eat and if children in the household were not eating enough because the household couldn’t afford it.

Not Caught Up on Rent

Table 2 shows the estimated number of adults whose household was not caught up on rent by state. The Pulse data likely understated the number of people struggling to pay rent because many respondents skipped questions toward the end of the survey, including the housing questions. This “non-response” was higher among groups that are younger, have lower levels of education, and identify as Black or Latino — groups that are more likely to struggle to afford rent, due to long-standing inequities often stemming from structural racism in education, employment, and housing.

Difficulty Covering Usual Household Expenses

The Pulse survey asks adult respondents if their household had difficulty paying for usual expenses such as food, rent or mortgage, car payments, medical expenses, or student loans in the last seven days. Table 3 shows the estimated number and percent of adults reporting that it was somewhat or very difficult for their household to pay for their usual expenses in the last seven days.

Unemployment

Table 4 provides state-by-state data on the unemployment rate over the August–October 2021 period and data on unemployment benefit claims.

End Notes

^[1] Federal surveys generally ask respondents whether they are “of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin.” This report uses the term “Latino.”

^[2] Claire Zippel and Arloc Sherman, “Bolstering Family Income Is Essential to Helping Children Emerge Successfully From the Current Crisis,” CBPP, updated February 25, 2021, https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/bolstering-family-income-is-essential-to-helping-children-emerge.

^[3] According to annual food insecurity data from the December 2020 Food Security Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS-FSS), 10.5 percent of U.S. households were food insecure in 2020. While the overall prevalence of food insecurity was unchanged from 2019, it increased for households with children and Black households. The number of individuals in food-insecure households also increased by 3 million, from 35.2 million in 2019 to 38.3 million in 2020. The CPS-FSS includes a measure of food insecurity, based on ten to 18 questions about conditions and behaviors related to difficulty meeting food needs. This measure is different from the food insufficiency measure in the Household Pulse Survey, which is based on a single question about the household having enough food to eat in the past seven days. While the food insecurity figures from the CPS-FSS appear to show lower rates of food hardship during 2020 than the Household Pulse Survey, more research is needed to assess the impact of differences in reference periods, mode of data collection, response rates, and other factors on reported food hardship. See Alisha Coleman-Jensen et al., “Household Food Security in the United States in 2020,” U.S. Department of Agriculture, September 2021, https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=102075.

^[4] Claire Zippel, “After Child Tax Credit Payments Begin, Many More Families Have Enough to Eat,” CBPP, August 30, 2021, https://www.cbpp.org/blog/after-child-tax-credit-payments-begin-many-more-families-have-enough-to-eat.

^[5] The Pulse Survey does not provide data for these groups individually.

^[6] U.S. Department of the Treasury, “November Emergency Rental Assistance Program Interim Report,” January 7, 2021, https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/November-ERA-Data.xlsx.

^[7] In Pulse survey data collected September 29–October 11, 2021, 8.4 million adults lived in households not caught up on rent. To adjust for non-response in the survey, we applied the share not caught up on rent (16.5 percent) to the total number of adult renters (73 million) in the March 2020 Current Population Survey to calculate an adjusted estimate.

^[8] In Pulse survey data collected September 29–October 11, 2021, 6.5 million adults were in households not caught up on their mortgage. To adjust for non-response in the survey, we applied the share not caught up on their mortgage (7.5 percent) to the total number of adult homeowners (about 100 million) in the March 2020 Current Population Survey to calculate an adjusted estimate.

^[9] Ajay Chaudry and Christopher Wimer, “Poverty is Not Just an Indicator: The Relationship Between Income, Poverty, and Child Well-Being,” Academic Pediatrics, Vol. 16, Issue 3, April 1, 2016, https://www.academicpedsjnl.net/article/S1876-2859(15)00383-6/fulltext.

^[10] Starting in mid-April 2021, the Pulse survey asks respondents whether they have difficulty seeing, hearing, remembering or concentrating, or walking or climbing stairs. In this report, adults with a disability are those who reported “a lot of difficulty” with, or “could not do at all”, one or more of these four activities. This definition, like others, may not accurately reflect the identities and experiences of all disabled people.

^[11] Starting in late July 2021, the Pulse survey asks respondents about their sex assigned at birth, gender identity, and sexual orientation. The Census Bureau categorizes Pulse respondents as LGBT if they identify as gay, bisexual, transgender, or as having a gender identity that doesn’t align with the sex they were assigned at birth. Respondents whose sex at birth aligns with their gender identity and who identify as straight are categorized as non-LGBT.

^[12] Chad Stone, “Robust Unemployment Insurance, Other Relief Needed to Mitigate Racial and Ethnic Unemployment Disparities,” CBPP, August 5, 2020, https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/robust-unemployment-insurance-other-relief-needed-to-mitigate-racial-and-ethnic.

^[13] Many analysts reach a similar conclusion using a slightly different approach, noting that the official unemployment rate is too low because it omits workers who have exited the labor force in the last 12 months and are no longer looking for work, and because it ignores workers whom the Labor Department says are improperly classified as employed in its survey data but are in fact absent from work. When these two factors are corrected using an approach recommended by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the unemployment rate for October 2021 could be as high as 7.2 percent. Jerome H. Powell, “Recent Economic Developments and the Challenges Ahead,” speech at the National Association for Business Economics Virtual Annual Meeting, October 6, 2020, https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20201006a.htm.

^[14] Chad Stone, “Congress Should Heed President Biden’s Call for Fundamental UI Reform,” CBPP, May 5, 2021, https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/congress-should-heed-president-bidens-call-for-fundamental-ui-reform.

The coronavirus pandemic has impacted the economy in many ways. From lockdown restrictions shutting down many businesses to limits on mobility, the economic impact has been severe.

Omicron variant

The surge in Covid-19 cases seen in December 2021, caused by the spread of the Omicron variant of coronavirus, has led to the UK Government and the devolved administrations to introduce restrictions to limit transmission of the virus.

The economic impact of these measures needs to be considered alongside factors such as changes to consumer confidence and behaviour, as well as effects linked to rising numbers of people having to self-isolate.

At the time of publication, early evidence suggests negative economic effects are already being felt. This includes a decline in retail footfall and cancellations of bookings in the hospitality sector.

A closely-watched business survey, the IHS Markit purchasing managers’ index, reported a steep drop in spending on services by households. The survey, conducted 6-14 December, also showed private sector growth expectations for the coming year were at their lowest since October 2020.

There remains a great deal of uncertainty over the path of the Omicron wave and by extension its economic impact. The Bank of England reduced its expectations for GDP in the coming months due to the impact of the Omicron variant. It also raised interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25% in response to annual consumer price inflation rising to 5.1% in November 2021.

Economic impact to date

The magnitude of the recession caused by the pandemic is unprecedented in modern times. GDP declined by 9.7% in 2020, the steepest drop since consistent records began in 1948 and equal to the decline in 1921 on unofficial estimates.

During the first lockdown, UK GDP was 25% lower in April 2020 than it was only two months earlier in February. Economic activity picked up over the spring and summer of 2020, reflecting the opening up of the economy. This was followed by a rise in Covid-19 cases and further lockdowns during the autumn and winter, leading to economic activity falling again.

The decline was, however, much less severe than during the first lockdown, as consumers and businesses had adapted over the previous year. A strong recovery in spring 2021 led to a rebound in GDP, although growth slowed in the summer and autumn. As of October 2021, GDP was still 0.5% lower than before the pandemic.

The pandemic has affected different sectors of the economy to different degrees. Sectors reliant on social contact, including hospitality and entertainment, have been especially badly hit. Some sectors, such as financial services, have fared relatively better.

Economic outlook for 2022 and beyond

As well as the Omicron variant, a number of other important factors will shape the economy in 2022 and thereafter.

One of these is inflation, which has risen over 2021. This was partly a result of the disruption to global supply chains and a surge in energy prices. High inflation levels will squeeze household budgets and, potentially, reining-in economic growth.

As of December, the average forecast among economists for GDP growth in 2021 is 7.0%. GDP growth forecasts for 2022 are around 5%, although they have been scaled back even before the Omicron wave started. In October 2021, the OBR forecast GDP growth of 6.5% in 2021 and 6.0% in 2022.

Even when the immediate economic shock of the pandemic does eventually dissipate, the crisis may result in permanent damage, or “scarring”, to the economy. An estimate from the OBR, published in October 2021, suggests this will lower the level of GDP by 2% compared to what it would have been without the pandemic.

Policy response

Governments and central banks around the world introduced policies designed to mitigate at least some of the negative economic impacts from the pandemic.

In the UK, numerous policies have been announced by the Government and the Bank of England to support businesses and workers.

These measures intend to keep businesses afloat and as many people as possible employed. They include financial support for businesses, workers and the wider public during the pandemic, as well as attempting to reduce the economic uncertainty.

Public finances

The UK’s public finances have been hugely affected by the economic shock of the coronavirus pandemic. The Government’s budget deficit reached a peacetime record in 2020/21, as government spending increased and – to a lesser extent – tax revenues fell. The Government’s package of support for businesses, households and public services is costing around £315 billion.

The pandemic’s effect on future deficits depends on the virus and how much permanent damage it causes to the economy. As the economy recovers, spending to support households and businesses is falling and tax receipts are growing. The Chancellor has announced tax rises, which will bring future deficits down further.

Government debt – the stock of its past borrowing – has inevitably increased. Going into the pandemic, government debt was equivalent to around 80% of GDP, it is 95% of GDP.

The Coronavirus Pandemic’s Economic Impact

In March of 2020, the United States was hit with a global pandemic caused by the
coronavirus. The coronavirus pandemic ushered in quarantines, mask mandates, product
shortages, business closures, and businesses scrambling to figure out new ways to keep their doors open. The economic impact of this can be seen in the U.S. Census Bureau’s economic surveys.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS—SALES, REVENUE, AND VALUE OF SHIPMENTS
The Census Bureau’s economic indicator surveys captured the initial shock of the coronavirus
pandemic, as well as economic trends since the national emergency was declared on
March 13, 2020. Figure 1 shows the impact across key sectors of the nation’s economy, including
services, retail trade, wholesale trade, and manufacturing. The data from all four graphs show a
dip in estimated sales, revenue, and value of shipments in 2020 followed by a recovery through
the fourth quarter of 2021.

Ten facts about COVID-19 and the U.S. economy

The coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) pandemic has created both a public health crisis and an economic crisis in the United States. The pandemic has disrupted lives, pushed the hospital system to its capacity, and created a global economic slowdown. As of September 15, 2020 there have been more than 6.5 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and more than 195,000 deaths in the United States (Johns Hopkins University n.d.). To put these numbers into context, the pandemic has now claimed more than three times the American lives that were lost in the Vietnam War (Ducharme 2020; authors’ calculations). The economic crisis is unprecedented in its scale: the pandemic has created a demand shock, a supply shock, and a financial shock all at once (Triggs and Kharas 2020).

On the public health front, the spread of the virus has exhibited clear geographic trends, starting in the densely populated urban centers and then spreading to more-rural parts of the country (Desjardins 2020). Figure A shows the weekly number of deaths caused by COVID-19 in each U.S. region from late February to late August 2020. Early on, COVID-19 cases were concentrated in coastal population centers, particularly in the Northeast, with cases in New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts peaking in April (Desjardins 2020). By April 9 there had been more COVID-19–related deaths in New York and New Jersey than in the rest of the United States combined (New York Times 2020). COVID-19–related deaths then peaked in the New England and Rocky Mountain regions during the third week of April, followed by the Great Lakes region in the fourth week of April, and the Mideast (excluding New York and New Jersey) and the Plains regions during the first week of May. The Southeast, Southwest, and Far West regions all experienced their peaks at the end of July and first week of August.

The COVID-19 crisis has also had differential impacts among various racial and ethnic groups. Inequities in the social determinants of health—income and wealth, health-care access and utilization, education, occupation, discrimination, and housing—are interrelated and put some racial and ethnic minority groups at increased risk of contracting and dying from COVID-19 (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC] 2020c). Inequities in infectious disease outcomes are the byproduct of decades of government policies that have systematically disadvantaged Black, Hispanic, and Native American communities (Cowger et al. 2020). For example, as a result of policies that have helped to determine the location, quality, and residential density for people of color, Black and Hispanic people are clustered in the same high-density, urban locations that were most affected in the first months of the pandemic (Cowger et al. 2020; Hardy and Logan 2020). In addition, Black people and Native American people disproportionately use public transit, which has been associated with higher COVID-19 contraction rates (McLaren 2020).

Relatedly, those demographic groups came into the crisis with a higher incidence of preexisting comorbidities including hypertension, diabetes, and heart disease, which also increase one’s risk of contracting and dying from COVID-19 (Yancy 2020; Ray 2020). Compared to white, non-Hispanic Americans, Black Americans are 2.6 times more likely to contract COVID-19, 4.7 times more likely to be hospitalized as a result of contracting the virus, and 2.1 times more likely to die from COVID-19–related health issues (CDC 2020b). While non-Hispanic white people are dying in the largest numbers (CDC 2020a), Black and Hispanic people are dying at much higher rates relative to their share of the U.S. population (see figure B1); moreover, this disparity is true for every age group (figure B2).

While voluntary social distancing and lockdowns that took effect in March 2020 worked initially to isolate and drive down infections, those actions precipitated a severe economic downturn. The demand shock resulting from quarantine, unemployment, and business closures dealt a blow to consumer services (Bartik, Bertrand, Cullen, et al. 2020). Lockdown measures and social distancing reduced the economy’s capacity to produce goods and services (Brinca, Duarte, and Faria-e-Castro 2020; Gupta, Simon, and Wing 2020).

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in February 2020, marking the end of the longest recorded U.S. expansion, which began in June 2009 (NBER n.d.). Figure C shows the percent difference in real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) from the peak of a business cycle through the quarter when GDP returned to the level of the previous business cycle peak for recent recessions. From the most recent peak in the fourth quarter of 2019, the United States experienced two consecutive quarters of declines in GDP; it even recorded its steepest quarterly drop in economic output on record, a decrease of 9.1 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (Bureau of Economic Analysis [BEA] 2020a; authors’ calculations). To put this contraction into historical context, quarterly GDP had never experienced a drop greater than 3 percent (at a quarterly, nonannualized rate) since record keeping began in 1947 (Routley 2020).

Figure D shows the percent change in employment relative to business cycle peaks. COVID-19–related job losses wiped out 113 straight months of job growth, with total nonfarm employment falling by 20.5 million jobs in April (BLS 2020b; authors’ calculations). The COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic shutdown created a crisis for all workers, but the impact was greater for women, non-white workers, lower-wage earners, and those with less education (Stevenson 2020). In December 2019 women held more nonfarm payroll jobs than men for the first time during a period of job growth; by May 2020 that relationship was reversed, in part reflecting job losses in the leisure and hospitality industry, where women account for 53 percent of workers (Stevenson 2020).

The COVID-19 crisis also led to dramatic swings in household spending. Retail sales, which primarily tracks sales of consumer goods, declined 8.7 percent from February to March 2020, the largest month-to-month decrease since the Census Bureau started tracking the data (U.S. Census Bureau 2020a). Although some areas (e.g., grocery stores, pharmacies, and non-store retailers) saw increases in demand as lockdown measures began, others (e.g., clothing stores, furniture and appliances stores, food services and drinking places, sporting and hobby stores, and gasoline stations) saw declines. In early May, as some states lifted social distancing restrictions, sales began to recover in most goods sectors (U.S. Census Bureau 2020a). Overall, U.S. retail sales increased 17.7 percent from April to May, the largest monthly jump on record, recouping 63 percent of March and April’s losses (U.S. Census Bureau 2020a). Growth in retail sales continued through the summer: by August, retail sales were 2.6 percent above their August 2019 level (U.S. Census Bureau 2020a).To help put those swings in such spending into historical context, figure E shows the percent change in real advance retail and food sales from the peak of a business cycle during recessions between 1980 and 2020.

In addition to consumer spending, the COVID-19 crisis has damaged the nation’s industrial production (i.e., output in the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors). As shown in figure F, U.S. industrial production dropped sharply in March and has since only partially rebounded. This decline poses a host of challenges for the U.S. manufacturing sector, which employs nearly 13 million workers (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis [FRED] 2020a), especially those that depend on workers whose jobs cannot be carried out remotely.

The effects of the crisis vary by industry subsector, with the construction machinery subsector having experienced less-severe effects than it faced during the 2007–09 financial crisis due to expected government infrastructure stimuli and an increase in e-commerce, while companies in the machine tools, plastics machinery, and steel production equipment sectors have been more negatively affected (Kronenwett 2020). In addition, the partial rebound in industrial production was boosted by a 107 percent increase in auto production in June 2020 (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 2020, table 1).

Six months into the COVID-19 crisis, we present 10 facts about the state of the U.S. economy. We highlight effects that COVID-19 has had on businesses, the labor market, and households. We conclude by considering how policy has supported businesses and families since March 2020. Taken together, these facts describe a joint economic and public health crisis of a scale and at a speed unprecedented in the history of the United States.

Fact 1: Small business revenue is down 20 percent since January.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been particularly damaging for small businesses, which represent the majority of businesses in the United States and employ nearly half of all private sector workers (Bartik, Bertrand, Cullen, et al. 2020; Small Business Administration 2012). Figure 1 shows how the different small business sectors have been affected by this downturn, highlighting severe declines in revenue among the leisure and hospitality as well as education and health services sectors. Compared to January 2020, average daily revenue as of August 9 was down by 47.5 percent in the leisure and hospitality sector, 16.4 percent in the education and health services sector, and 14.1 percent in the retail and transportation sector; aggregate small business revenue across all industries had fallen by 19.1 percent

Some sectors where employees could not work remotely and where businesses were not deemed essential to be open fared particularly poorly (Papanikolau and Schmidt 2020). Notably, some of these sectors, after partially rebounding, have begun to see revenue declines again starting in August. For example, the percent reduction in revenue fell by more than 5 percentage points in the first 10 days of August in the retail and transportation sector as well as in the leisure and hospitality sector.

In line with these declines in revenue, significant declines in employment at the beginning of the recession were seen in small businesses. Between March and April, employment in firms with fewer than 20 employees fell more than 16 percent; for firms with between 20 and 49 employees, the decline was 22 percent (Wilmoth 2020). Between August 30 and September 5, 50 percent of respondents had not rehired any employees, 5 percent of respondents had rehired at least one employee and 55 percent of respondents had not furloughed or laid off any employees (Small Business Pulse 2020).

There is, of course, substantial uncertainty in these calculations. A major source of uncertainty is the extent of climate change over the next several decades, which depends largely on future policy choices and economic developments—both of which affect the level of total carbon emissions. As noted earlier, this uncertainty justifies more aggressive action to limit emissions and thereby help insure against the worst potential outcomes.

Stabilizing business revenue is crucial—not only to avoid costly layoffs and firm closures, but also because reduced revenue will result in diminished investment, which can compound the future output and income damages of a recession (Boushey et al. 2019); for example, following declines in revenue during the Great Recession, real private nonresidential fixed investment fell 16 percent (FRED 2020c). For a Hamilton Project proposal on how to provide small businesses with relief in this crisis, see Hamilton (2020).

Fact 2: So far, only Chapter 11 bankruptcies have increased relative to last year.

The decline in business revenue has caused many firms to become insolvent. Hamilton (2020) estimates that by July nearly 420,000 small businesses had failed since the start of the pandemic, the number of failures typically seen in an entire year. Nevertheless, Wang et al. (2020) find that total bankruptcies are down 27 percent year-over-year between January and August. Breaking it out by type of filing, figure 2 shows how the filing of bankruptcies has changed since February 2020 from the same month last year. Chapter 11 bankruptcies—in which a plan for reorganization is negotiated—were down in February when the economy was relatively strong. Since March, such bankruptcies have regularly been between 15 percent and 50 percent higher than in the same month last year. Although larger firms benefit from entering into Chapter 11 bankruptcy in order to reorganize their operations, many smaller businesses opt for outright closures. Chapter 7 bankruptcies—in which the assets of the debtor are liquidated and used to pay creditors—decreased sharply from the same time last year in April and May and have remained below their 2019 levels through August. Finally, Chapter 13 bankruptcies—for individuals or sole proprietors who agree to pay a percentage of their income until creditors are paid off—have been down by about 60 percent from the same month in the previous year since April.

Court closures resulting from the virus have had significant effects on bankruptcy filings, with many negotiation meetings cancelled, court proceedings delayed, and lawyers holding off on bringing large cases (Church 2020).1 In addition to logistical challenges that have likely delayed bankruptcies, many owners of businesses that are closed or suffering large reductions in revenue are likely waiting to file for Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Firms that rely on financial institutions and markets for financing face curtailed access to credit (Federal Reserve Bank 2020). The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis finds that firms under those conditions during the Great Recession were more likely to declare bankruptcy. In all, conditions point to a coming wave of bankruptcies (Famiglietti and Leibovici 2020).

Firm closures can sometimes be the result of efficient market reallocation (Barrero, Bloom, and Davis 2020). Indeed, Bartik, Bertrand, Lin, et al. (2020) show that small businesses that were struggling in 2019 were the most likely to close early in the pandemic and the least likely to reopen. Nonetheless, this crisis will no doubt lead to the failure of viable, productive businesses; letting these businesses fail is costly to the economy (Hamilton 2020).

Fact 3: New business formations fell off in the spring, but are on track to outpace recent years.

At the same time that business closures spiked in the spring, business formations lagged behind pre-crisis levels in the early months of the pandemic. More recently, business formations have begun to increase. Figure 3 shows how many new high-propensity businesses (i.e., those new businesses that are most likely to become employers) filed applications in recent years. By early June 2020 cumulative high-propensity business formations were 4.4 percent lower than they were at the same time in 2019; however, by mid-August there were actually 56 percent more new business applications than in mid-August 2019.

Business formations tend to decline during recessions (Boushey et al. 2019); in the current recession, public health conditions worked to depress business formation as well. For example, Sedláček and Sterk (2020) find that states with a larger number of COVID-19 deaths tended to have fewer high-propensity business applications

Since mid-summer, high-propensity business applications have rebounded. The Economic Innovation Group (EIG) offers three potential explanations for this recent increase: (1) there could have been a backlog in the processing of new business applications as a result of the same court closures discussed in fact 2, (2) newly unemployed persons might be starting their own businesses, and (3) some entrepreneurs could be trying to capitalize on potential reallocation or other opportunities occurring in the market (EIG 2020). There is some evidence that business creation has been boosted by demand for new kinds of goods: our analysis shows that many states with heavy manufacturing bases have seen the fastest rebounds (not shown). At the same time, 14 states still trail last year’s pace of business formation (Business Formation Statistics 2020; authors’ calculations).

Continuity in business formation is critical for long-term growth. Sedláček (2020) finds that the “lost generation” of firms during the Great Recession led to significant output loss: if firm entry had remained constant instead of falling, the economy would have recovered four to six years earlier and the unemployment rate would have been 0.5 percentage point lower even 10 years after the trough. Long term, a 1 standard deviation shock to the number of start-ups (resulting in an initial decrease in start-ups of about 10 percent) results in a 1–1.5 percent drop in real GDP that can last 10 years or longer (Guorio, Messer, and Siemer 2016). For more on the significance of entrepreneurship and innovation in the U.S. economy, see prior Hamilton Project work (e.g., Shambaugh et al. 2018).

Fact 4: Layoffs and shutdowns—and not reduced average hours—are driving in total hours worked.

The labor market devastation caused by this pandemic has been the quickest and most severe in recent U.S. history. Many firms reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic by reducing their operations. Figure 4a shows the decline in total hours worked using data from Homebase, a firm that provides scheduling and time clock software to service-sector clients (e.g., food services, retail).2 Figure 4a shows the daily change in total hours worked from February through July, relative to a base period (January 19–February 1). The total number of hours worked fell by about 60 percent in March. While the number of daily hours began to rise again in mid-April, they leveled off at around 25 percent below baseline in June. Since then, aggregate hours have remained at between 25 and 30 percent of their baseline level.

Figure 4b shows Bartik, Bertrand, Lin, et al.’s (2020) decomposition of the reduction in total hours from figure 4a into (1) average hours worked by a worker, (2) layoffs, and (3) establishment or firm shutdowns. Their analysis shows that, beginning in late March, the reduction in total hours was primarily driven by layoffs and establishment shutdowns. That is, the observed reduction in hours has not been driven by cutting hours among workers, but by reduced employment and temporary furloughs. Relatedly, worker recall is where much of the gain in hours has come since the April nadir. Cajner et al. (2020) find that the reopening businesses, especially small firms like those observed in the Homebase data, were major contributors to post-April employment gains.

Fact 5: The number of labor force participants not at work quadrupled from January to April.

During economic contractions, the share of the population that is employed declines. Figure 5 shows the number of workers in selected labor force statuses from January to July. From March to April, the number of prime-age people participating in the labor force but not working (i.e., either unemployed or employed but not at work) rose from 7.9 million to 19.6 million. That increase was largely driven by a 10.3 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate (FRED 2020d).

As shown in figure 5, an unusual phenomenon in April and May was the surge in labor force participants that were counted as employed but not at work. These workers were either absent from work for a reason (e.g., vacation, child care) or absent from work for “other” reasons; recent research has suggested that this latter group largely misclassified themselves as being employed, suggesting an even higher share of the population was out of work (Bauer et al. 2020).

Early in the recession, the majority of those who were not at work—either those who were unemployed or those employed but not at work—described their circumstances as temporary. Temporary layoffs are less damaging then permanent layoffs because they represent a much higher chance of reemployment since the employer–employee relationship is maintained (Fujita and Moscarini 2017; Nunn and Parsons 2020). In April, 10.1 million were unemployed on temporary layoff, 4.8 million were potentially misclassified as employed but absent from work for “other” reason, and 2.0 million were employed and absent from work for a specific reason. Altogether, these people represented 86.3 percent of prime-age labor force participants not at work in April.

In May, June, and July, these three categories accounted for a smaller share of labor force participants who were not at work. Instead, a rising number of people not at work have classified themselves as being on permanent layoff. In April, the number who were unemployed due to a permanent job loss was 1.6 million, up only modestly from the number prior to the recession and representing 6.5 percent of those unemployed or employed but not at work. In July, 2.3 million were unemployed due to permanent layoff, which was 11.8 percent of those either unemployed or employed and not at work.

More permanent layoffs suggest more people being unemployed for longer periods. Chodorow-Reich and Coglianese (2020) project that, by February 2021, 4.5 million individuals will have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks, and almost 2 million individuals will have been unemployed for more than 46 weeks. Long-term unemployment can lead to lower future earnings and reduced rates of homeownership (Cooper 2013).

Fact 6: The number of people not in the labor force who want a job spiked by 4.5 million in April and has remained elevated.

While many of the millions of people who are no longer employed are counted as unemployed (as highlighted in fact 5), a significant portion have dropped out of the labor force altogether. Figure 6 shows the number of persons not in the labor force but who say they want a job. The size of that group grew by 4.5 million in April, as the group includes those who lost their jobs in March and did not look for work in April (and thus were classified as not in the labor force). Within the group of people out of the labor force but who want a job, 6.0 percent reported being discouraged by their labor market prospects and 16.7 percent reported having another reason for not looking for work. The increase between March and April in those not in the labor force but who want a job was particularly large among adults of prime working age (25-54): 2.5 million (BLS 2020a; authors’ calculations). These numbers have remained elevated since April. To put this into context, the unemployment rate in August was 8.4 percent; however, using an alternative measure of unemployment that also includes people not in the labor force who want a job and are available to work—both discouraged and not discouraged workers (i.e., U-5)—the rate was 9.6 percent in August.

Many of those reporting being out of the labor force but wanting a job have not been looking for work because of reasons that include child-care responsibilities, issues with transportation, or illness. The size of that group has risen steadily, from 867,000 in March to 1.8 million in June, but then fell slightly to 1.5 million in August. As highlighted in Stevenson (2020), disruptions in child care have led many working parents to drop out the labor force, a development that (without significant policy intervention) could have long-lasting negative effects on labor market outcomes for years to come.

As was true before the pandemic, the majority of those not in the labor force do not want a job; not shown in figure 6 are the roughly 90 million Americans who said they did not want a job (BLS 2020a). This group, which consists largely of students, family caretakers, retirees, and people with illnesses, became larger in April and May, with some evidence suggesting that the pandemic pushed workers over the age of 54 into retirement. For example, among people who were employed in January but out of the labor force in April, 28 percent who offered a reason why they had left the labor force said they were retired (Coiboin, Gorodnichenko, Weber 2020).

Fact 7: In April 2020 the U.S. personal savings rate reached its highest recorded level.

One of the immediate effects of the COVID-19 pandemic was a sharp decline in aggregate spending and a sharp increase in savings. Figure 7 shows the personal saving rate, which is the ratio of personal saving to disposable personal income. The personal saving rate peaked at 34 percent in April, its highest level in recorded history. It has decreased since then but remains significantly elevated. That increase has been the result of both lower spending and greater federal transfer payments.

Just as it did across the world (Andersen et al. 2020; Bounie, Camara, and Galbraith 2020; Carvalho et al. 2020), spending in the United States dropped following COVID-19–related shutdowns (Coiboin, Gorodnichenko, Weber 2020). Spending on many types of goods and services fell immediately as the pandemic emerged. Nevertheless, some categories of goods spending saw initial increases and most categories of goods spending have rebounded since March; for example, spending on groceries was strong early in the pandemic, with women, households with children, and older households stockpiling more supplies (Baker al. 2020). Although goods spending has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, spending on services remains sharply down through July (BEA 2020c).

Through July, the saving rate was also boosted by stimulus payments to households, including unemployment insurance benefits and other federal transfers to households. As a result of those payments, even as millions of workers have lost their jobs, disposable personal income from March to July exceeded pre-pandemic levels (FRED 2020b). Although evidence suggests that many low-income households spent their stimulus checks immediately, other income groups said they planned to save the money (Baker et al. 2020; Chetty et al. 2020;), and low-income households were more likely to save their overall monthly income relative to prior periods (Bachas et al. 2020; Coibion, Gorodnichenko, and Weber 2020). Furthermore, Bachas et al. (2020) find evidence of sizeable growth in liquid asset balances for many households whom the federal support reached, suggesting the importance of the initial stimulus and insurance programs in limiting the effects of labor market disruptions on households’ financial positions. For low-income households whom the federal support has not reached, financial circumstances have been dire.

Fact 8: Low-income families with children were most likely to experience an income shock.

During the COVID-19 recession, job loss and labor income loss have not been experienced equally. Since March, low3-income households, non-white households, and households with children were most likely to experience an income shock (Monte 2020). Figures 8a and 8b shows these patterns in late July.

About half of Black and Hispanic households experienced an income shock recently (see figure 8a). Hispanic families with and without children are most likely to experience an income shock. Lopez, Rainie, and Budimen (2020) found that 61 percent of Hispanic adults said in April that they or someone in their house had experienced a job or wage loss. Ganong et al. (2020) examine the racial gaps in consumption smoothing following an income shock, and find that the welfare cost of income volatility (i.e., how much a household cuts consumption following an income shock) is 50 percent higher for Black households and 20 percent higher for Hispanic households than it is for white households.

More than three out of five low-income households with children reported that they had experienced an income shock due to COVID-19 (figure 8b; authors’ calculations). Income losses related to COVID-19 are associated with a host of material hardships, including food insecurity and difficulty paying bills (Despard et al. 2020). Families with children are also vulnerable to falling behind on obligations: each additional child in a household increases the likelihood of a serious delinquency (being at least two months behind on a current loan obligation) by 17 percent (Ricketts and Boshara 2020).

Fact 9: In 26 states, more than one in five households was behind on rent in July.

Although the increase in federal payments to households and unemployed workers has been relatively generous, it has not been able to cover all expenses for struggling households. Focusing on renters surveyed in late July, figure 9 shows that in 26 states more than one-fifth of renting households had not yet paid their rent for June, and that in five of those states (including New York) one-third of households had not yet paid their rent.

According to a survey by Apartment List, missed payments were concentrated among young and low-income households as well as residents of densely populated urban areas. With late fees added on, households who miss a rent payment in a given month may be more likely to be unable to afford their next housing payment, creating a vicious circle of delinquency and putting households at risk for eviction (Adamcyk 2020). In addition, renters (as compared to home owners) are less likely to receive federal support for housing costs (Amherst Market Commentary 2020).

For many households, unemployment coincided with having less than two month’s income in liquid assets and having high debt-to-income ratios (Kolomatsky 2020). In an April 2020 survey conducted by the Pew Research Center, 73 percent of Black adults and 70 percent of Hispanic adults indicated that they did not have emergency funds to cover three months of expenses, compared to 47 percent of white adults (Lopez, Rainie, and Budimen 2020). Furthermore, Black and Hispanic respondents also said they would not be able to cover these expenses by borrowing money, using savings, or selling assets (Lopez, Rainie, and Budimen 2020).

Fact 10: From 2018 to mid-2020, the rate of food insecurity doubled for households with children.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, rates of food insecurity and of very low food security among households with children have increased (see figure 10). Food insecurity occurs when a household does not have sufficient food for its members to maintain healthy and active lives and lacks the resources to obtain more food. Very low food security is akin to hunger and captures whether there is a significant or consistent disruption in food consumption. Notably, the current levels of food insecurity are above their Great Recession peaks.

Food insecurity is particularly high among households with children. In fact, it has doubled since before the pandemic, growing from roughly 14 percent in 2018 to about 32 percent of households in July 2020 (see figure 10). These rates are even higher for Black and Hispanic households (Schanzenbach and Pitts 2020), and Black and Hispanic households with children (Bauer 2020).

Typically, families experiencing food insecurity are able to nonetheless maintain food security for their children; but this does not seem to be the case today (Coleman-Jenson et al. 2020). In June and July, rates of very low food security among children worsened, increasing from 16.4 percent in the first week in June to 19.0 percent by the third week of July.

Several policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have supported households’ food security. Pandemic EBT, a disaster response program that provided the value of lost school meals to eligible households as a grocery voucher, reduced very low food security among children by 30 percent (Bauer et al. 2020). Unemployment Insurance receipt and SNAP emergency allotments also reduced food insecurity (Bitler, Hoynes, and Schanzenbach 2020; Raifman, Bor, and Venkataramani 2020).

Discussion

We conclude this set of economic facts with a discussion of the federal policy response to COVID-19. The fiscal policy response to the pandemic has taken two primary tacks: (1) aid to business, and (2) aid to households and unemployed workers. A series of laws—notably The Families First Act and The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES) Act—authorized hundreds of billions of dollars in direct support to firms and to families.

The major program in the CARES Act providing relief to small businesses is the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). According to the Small Business Pulse Survey, 73.5 percent of small businesses surveyed requested financial assistance from the PPP; 25.6 percent requested economic injury disaster loans; and 13 percent requested small business administration loan forgiveness between March 13 and September 5. As described in Hamilton (2020), the PPP was initially allocated $349 billion to offer loans to small businesses, with such loans being forgiven if businesses retained workers and maintained payroll. The program was significantly oversubscribed at first, and larger businesses—who requested larger loans—disproportionately received funding. In particular, although loans for over $1 million only represented 4 percent of all loans processed in the first round of PPP, they represented 45 percent of all dollars disbursed (figure G). As a result, an additional $310 billion was allocated to the PPP, nearly half of which had been disbursed by early August; this second round resulted in a greater number of smaller loans to smaller businesses: as shown in figure G, in the second round of PPP loans under $150,000 accounted for 94 percent of all loans processed and 49 percent of all dollars disbursed.

Empirical evidence on the effect of the PPP in maintaining employment has been mixed, although the range of results generally show a positive effect. For example, about 50 percent of recipients reported retaining between one and five jobs as a result of the program, whereas about 10 percent reported retaining no jobs (SBA 2020; authors’ calculations). One study examining a broad range of firms estimated that the PPP led to 2.3 million jobs being maintained through early June, or for about eight weeks (Autor et al. 2020). Another study examining firms with relatively low wages found no employment effect (Chetty et al. 2020), and attributed the lack of effect to the fact that firms that offer professional, scientific, and technical services received a greater share of loans than firms providing food services.

PPP loans increased business’s expected survival probability by between 14 and 30 percentage points (Bartik, Bertrand, Cullen, et al. 2020). While administering the loans via private banks allowed for rapid disbursement of funds, it meant that businesses with pre-existing connections with banks were more likely to benefit from the program (Bartik, Bertrand, Cullen, et al. 2020). Humphries, Neilson, and Ulyssea (2020) found that of businesses that applied for the PPP, smaller businesses applied later, faced longer processing times, and were less likely to have their applications approved. Relatedly, Granja et al. (2020) found that PPP funds went disproportionately to areas less affected by the pandemic: 15 percent of establishments in the most-affected areas received loans while 30 percent of those in the least-affected areas received them. These issues together with PPP’s “firstcome, first-served” design disadvantaged small businesses.

As Hamilton (2020) makes clear, while the PPP supported many small businesses in the spring and early summer, the support was temporary. It was not sufficient to keep small businesses viable through the pandemic. Small businesses are now in dire straits and in need of further assistance.

Initially, there was an unprecedented level of federal resources provided to households, largely through one-time stimulus payments and expanded unemployment insurance (UI) payments. As a result of those payments, disposable personal income was nearly 10 percent higher in the second quarter of 2020 relative to the first quarter, even though employee compensation fell almost 7 percent (BEA 2020b).

The Families First Act and CARES Act included stimulus payments for households based on income, expanded UI eligibility, an increase of $600 in UI payments to recipients, increases in SNAP benefits to those households not receiving the maximum benefit, and direct payments to families with children eligible for free or reduced-price school meals to make up for missed school meals.

Figure H highlights the increase in new federal outlays from these three sets of disbursements to households by month from March to August by subtracting 2019 outlays for these categories from 2020. As shown in figure H, there was an increase in tax refunds and other IRS payments to households of more than $140 billion in April, with additional increases in later months for households whose stimulus payments were delayed. (It is also likely that the increase in July reflects the delay in the tax filing date.) In addition, UI payments totaled nearly $46 billion in April, and then averaged $104 billion from May through July. In August, UI payments fell sharply, to $52 billion, as the additional $600 weekly payment to recipients expired. The combination of higher SNAP participation, SNAP emergency allotments, and PandemicEBT resulted in total spending on food assistance averaging around $3.4 billion per month. Other temporary measures in the CARES Act that supported households included student loan forbearance and prohibitions on most foreclosures and evictions.

Mounting empirical evidence shows that the extraordinary support for households and unemployed people supported spending and economic growth in recent months (Casado et al. 2020). According to an economic analysis by the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, for every dollar of stimulus, households increased spending by 25–35 cents (Robbins 2020).

Going forward, the expiration of the $600 weekly payment to UI recipients will be a drag on consumer spending (even as some recipients became eligible for a temporary increase in payments of $300 a week). In addition, recent evidence suggests the generous UI benefits through July did not constrain the supply of labor and so the expiration of those benefits did not provide a boost to labor supply and employment (Altonji et al. 2020; Marinescu, Skandalis, and Zhao 2020). With wages and salaries down 5 percent from February to July, households continue to need substantial federal support (Bitler, Hoynes, and Schanzenbach 2020).

Indeed, the abrupt lapse in support for firms, households, the unemployed, and families with children threatens a nascent and fragile economic recovery and stands to do long-term and permanent damage. The greater the economic damage during the pandemic, the more protracted the recovery will be once the pandemic is over. Given the cost to life and livelihood of a weak economy and labor market, policymakers must continue to use the fiscal, monetary, and public health tools at their disposal to end the COVID-19 pandemic and hasten a self-sustaining economic recovery.

Fiscal support to firms and families flowed promptly, with notable exceptions. Black applicants faced significant delays in receiving UI, and the smallest businesses without preexisting relationships with banks struggled to receive PPP (Schanzenbach et al. 2016; Grooms, Ortega, and Rubalcaba 2020). And while existing automatic stabilizers have sprung into action given the speed of the economic collapse, much more could be done to extend augmented countercyclical fiscal policy forward in time to help sustain the recovery (Boushey, Nunn, and Shambaugh 2019). The federal government’s failure to act since March—to suppress the spread of COVID-19, to improve automatic stabilizers, to extend fiscal relief—is to our collective detriment. The Hamilton Project’s mission is to provide evidence and policy proposals based on the judgment that long-term prosperity is best achieved by fostering economic growth and broad participation in that growth. Federal fiscal policy can and should do more—urgently—to support those goals.

Resources

Imprimis Oct 2022, Vol51, Num 10, “The Economic Disaster of the Pandemic Response.” By Jeffrey A. Tucker; cbpp.org, “Tracking the COVID-19 Economy’s Effects on Food, Housing, and Employment Hardships.”; commonslibrary.parliament.uk, “Coronavirus: Economic impact.” By Daniel Harari, Matthew Keep and Philip Brien; www2.census.gov, “The Coronavirus Pandemic’s Economic Impact.” By Steven Roman, Sandra Cooke-Hull, Michael Dunfee, Melissa Flaherty, Joseph Haskell, Venita Holland, Caroline Jackson, and Colin Shevlin; brookings.edu, “Ten facts about COVID-19 and the U.S. economy.” By Lauren Bauer, Kristen Broady, Wendy Edelberg, and Jimmy O’Donnell;

High Hardship Rates Fell as Relief Arrived, Census Bureau Data Show

Difficulty Getting Enough Food

Difficulty Covering Household Expenses

Many Workers Remained Sidelined, With Job Losses Concentrated in Low-Paid Industries

State-by-State Food, Housing, and Employment Hardship Data

Difficulty Getting Enough Food

Not Caught Up on Rent

Difficulty Covering Usual Household Expenses

Unemployment

End Notes

Omicron variant

Economic impact to date

Economic outlook for 2022 and beyond

Policy response

Public finances

Fact 1: Small business revenue is down 20 percent since January.

Fact 2: So far, only Chapter 11 bankruptcies have increased relative to last year.

Fact 3: New business formations fell off in the spring, but are on track to outpace recent years.

Fact 4: Layoffs and shutdowns—and not reduced average hours—are driving in total hours worked.

Fact 5: The number of labor force participants not at work quadrupled from January to April.

Fact 6: The number of people not in the labor force who want a job spiked by 4.5 million in April and has remained elevated.

Fact 7: In April 2020 the U.S. personal savings rate reached its highest recorded level.

Fact 8: Low-income families with children were most likely to experience an income shock.

Fact 9: In 26 states, more than one in five households was behind on rent in July.

Fact 10: From 2018 to mid-2020, the rate of food insecurity doubled for households with children.

Discussion

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